Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/17268
Title:
Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.
Authors:
Grais, R; Ferrari, M J; Dubray, C; Bjørnstad, O N; Grenfell, B T; Djibo, A; Fermon, F; Guerin, P J
Journal:
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact.
Affiliation:
Epicentre, 8 rue Saint Sabin, 75011 Paris, France. rebecca.grais@epicentre.msf.org
Publisher:
Elsevier
Issue Date:
Sep-2006
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/17268
DOI:
10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.10.014
PubMed ID:
16540134
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00359203
Language:
en
ISSN:
0035-9203
Appears in Collections:
Vaccination

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorGrais, R-
dc.contributor.authorFerrari, M J-
dc.contributor.authorDubray, C-
dc.contributor.authorBjørnstad, O N-
dc.contributor.authorGrenfell, B T-
dc.contributor.authorDjibo, A-
dc.contributor.authorFermon, F-
dc.contributor.authorGuerin, P J-
dc.date.accessioned2008-01-31T16:32:31Z-
dc.date.available2008-01-31T16:32:31Z-
dc.date.issued2006-09-
dc.identifier.citationEstimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. 2006, 100 (9):867-73 Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg.en
dc.identifier.issn0035-9203-
dc.identifier.pmid16540134-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.10.014-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10144/17268-
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier-
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00359203-
dc.rightsArchived on this site with the kind permission of Elsevier Ltd. and the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, http://www.rstmh.org/transactions.aspen
dc.subject.meshAge Distributionen
dc.subject.meshChild, Preschoolen
dc.subject.meshDisease Outbreaksen
dc.subject.meshHumansen
dc.subject.meshInfanten
dc.subject.meshMeaslesen
dc.subject.meshMeasles Vaccineen
dc.subject.meshModels, Biologicalen
dc.subject.meshNigeren
dc.subject.meshProspective Studiesen
dc.subject.meshRetrospective Studiesen
dc.subject.meshUrban Healthen
dc.subject.meshVaccinationen
dc.titleEstimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.en
dc.contributor.departmentEpicentre, 8 rue Saint Sabin, 75011 Paris, France. rebecca.grais@epicentre.msf.orgen
dc.identifier.journalTransactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygieneen

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