Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/302767
Title:
Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery
Authors:
Bharti, N.; Tatem, A. J.; Ferrari, M. J.; Grais, R. F.; Djibo, A.; Grenfell, B. T.
Journal:
Science
Abstract:
Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.
Affiliation:
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Publisher:
High Wire Press
Issue Date:
9-Dec-2011
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/302767
DOI:
10.1126/science.1210554
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1210554
Submitted date:
2013-06-25
Language:
en
ISSN:
0036-8075; 1095-9203
Appears in Collections:
Other Diseases

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorBharti, N.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorTatem, A. J.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorFerrari, M. J.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorGrais, R. F.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorDjibo, A.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorGrenfell, B. T.en_GB
dc.date.accessioned2013-10-04T21:00:54Z-
dc.date.available2013-10-04T21:00:54Z-
dc.date.issued2011-12-09-
dc.date.submitted2013-06-25-
dc.identifier.citationExplaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imageryExplaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery 2011, 334 (6061):1424 Scienceen_GB
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075-
dc.identifier.issn1095-9203-
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/science.1210554-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10144/302767-
dc.description.abstractMeasles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.en_GB
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherHigh Wire Pressen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1210554en_GB
dc.rightsAwaiting publisher's permissionen_GB
dc.subjectMeaslesen_GB
dc.titleExplaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imageryen
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USAen_GB
dc.identifier.journalScienceen_GB
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