El Niño and the Shifting Geography of Cholera in Africa

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/618891
Title:
El Niño and the Shifting Geography of Cholera in Africa
Authors:
Moore, SM; Azman, AS; Zaitchik, BF; Mintz, ED; Brunkard, J; Legros, D; Hill, A; McKay, H; Luquero, FJ; Olson, D; Lessler, J
Journal:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Abstract:
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases ranging from dengue to cholera. In Africa, El Niño conditions are associated with increased rainfall in East Africa and decreased rainfall in southern Africa, West Africa, and parts of the Sahel. Because of the key role of water supplies in cholera transmission, a relationship between El Niño events and cholera incidence is highly plausible, and previous research has shown a link between ENSO patterns and cholera in Bangladesh. However, there is little systematic evidence for this link in Africa. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we find that the annual geographic distribution of cholera in Africa from 2000 to 2014 changes dramatically, with the burden shifting to continental East Africa-and away from Madagascar and portions of southern, Central, and West Africa-where almost 50,000 additional cases occur during El Niño years. Cholera incidence during El Niño years was higher in regions of East Africa with increased rainfall, but incidence was also higher in some areas with decreased rainfall, suggesting a complex relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence. Here, we show clear evidence for a shift in the distribution of cholera incidence throughout Africa in El Niño years, likely mediated by El Niño's impact on local climatic factors. Knowledge of this relationship between cholera and climate patterns coupled with ENSO forecasting could be used to notify countries in Africa when they are likely to see a major shift in their cholera risk.
Publisher:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States
Issue Date:
10-Apr-2017
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/618891
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1617218114
PubMed ID:
28396423
Language:
en
ISSN:
1091-6490
Appears in Collections:
Other Diseases

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorMoore, SMen
dc.contributor.authorAzman, ASen
dc.contributor.authorZaitchik, BFen
dc.contributor.authorMintz, EDen
dc.contributor.authorBrunkard, Jen
dc.contributor.authorLegros, Den
dc.contributor.authorHill, Aen
dc.contributor.authorMcKay, Hen
dc.contributor.authorLuquero, FJen
dc.contributor.authorOlson, Den
dc.contributor.authorLessler, Jen
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-19T16:27:15Z-
dc.date.available2017-04-19T16:27:15Z-
dc.date.issued2017-04-10-
dc.identifier.citationEl Niño and the Shifting Geography of Cholera in Africa. 2017 Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.en
dc.identifier.issn1091-6490-
dc.identifier.pmid28396423-
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1617218114-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10144/618891-
dc.description.abstractThe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate patterns can have profound impacts on the occurrence of infectious diseases ranging from dengue to cholera. In Africa, El Niño conditions are associated with increased rainfall in East Africa and decreased rainfall in southern Africa, West Africa, and parts of the Sahel. Because of the key role of water supplies in cholera transmission, a relationship between El Niño events and cholera incidence is highly plausible, and previous research has shown a link between ENSO patterns and cholera in Bangladesh. However, there is little systematic evidence for this link in Africa. Using high-resolution mapping techniques, we find that the annual geographic distribution of cholera in Africa from 2000 to 2014 changes dramatically, with the burden shifting to continental East Africa-and away from Madagascar and portions of southern, Central, and West Africa-where almost 50,000 additional cases occur during El Niño years. Cholera incidence during El Niño years was higher in regions of East Africa with increased rainfall, but incidence was also higher in some areas with decreased rainfall, suggesting a complex relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence. Here, we show clear evidence for a shift in the distribution of cholera incidence throughout Africa in El Niño years, likely mediated by El Niño's impact on local climatic factors. Knowledge of this relationship between cholera and climate patterns coupled with ENSO forecasting could be used to notify countries in Africa when they are likely to see a major shift in their cholera risk.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United Statesen
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen
dc.titleEl Niño and the Shifting Geography of Cholera in Africaen
dc.identifier.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen

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