The Impact of Control Strategies and Behavioural Changes on the Elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia

Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/618893
Title:
The Impact of Control Strategies and Behavioural Changes on the Elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia
Authors:
Funk, S; Ciglenecki, I; Tiffany, A; Gignoux, E; Camacho, A; Eggo, RM; Kucharski, AJ; Edmunds, WJ; Bolongei, J; Azuma, P; Clement, P; Alpha, TS; Sterk, E; Telfer, B; Engel, G; Parker, LA; Suzuki, M; Heijenberg, N; Reeder, B
Journal:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Abstract:
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa was stopped by an enormous concerted effort of local communities and national and international organizations. It is not clear, however, how much the public health response and behavioural changes in affected communities, respectively, contributed to ending the outbreak. Here, we analyse the epidemic in Lofa County, Liberia, lasting from March to November 2014, by reporting a comprehensive time line of events and estimating the time-varying transmission intensity using a mathematical model of Ebola transmission. Model fits to the epidemic show an alternation of peaks and troughs in transmission, consistent with highly heterogeneous spread. This is combined with an overall decline in the reproduction number of Ebola transmission from early August, coinciding with an expansion of the local Ebola treatment centre. We estimate that healthcare seeking approximately doubled over the course of the outbreak, and that isolation of those seeking healthcare reduced their reproduction number by 62% (mean estimate, 95% credible interval (CI) 59-66). Both expansion of bed availability and improved healthcare seeking contributed to ending the epidemic, highlighting the importance of community engagement alongside clinical intervention.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.
Publisher:
Royal Society Publishing
Issue Date:
26-May-2017
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10144/618893
DOI:
10.1098/rstb.2016.0302
PubMed ID:
28396473
Submitted date:
2017-04-17
Language:
en
ISSN:
1471-2970
Appears in Collections:
Other Diseases

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorFunk, Sen
dc.contributor.authorCiglenecki, Ien
dc.contributor.authorTiffany, Aen
dc.contributor.authorGignoux, Een
dc.contributor.authorCamacho, Aen
dc.contributor.authorEggo, RMen
dc.contributor.authorKucharski, AJen
dc.contributor.authorEdmunds, WJen
dc.contributor.authorBolongei, Jen
dc.contributor.authorAzuma, Pen
dc.contributor.authorClement, Pen
dc.contributor.authorAlpha, TSen
dc.contributor.authorSterk, Een
dc.contributor.authorTelfer, Ben
dc.contributor.authorEngel, Gen
dc.contributor.authorParker, LAen
dc.contributor.authorSuzuki, Men
dc.contributor.authorHeijenberg, Nen
dc.contributor.authorReeder, Ben
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-19T16:28:56Z-
dc.date.available2017-04-19T16:28:56Z-
dc.date.issued2017-05-26-
dc.date.submitted2017-04-17-
dc.identifier.citationThe Impact of Control Strategies and Behavioural Changes on the Elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia. 2017, 372 (1721) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci.en
dc.identifier.issn1471-2970-
dc.identifier.pmid28396473-
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rstb.2016.0302-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10144/618893-
dc.description.abstractThe Ebola epidemic in West Africa was stopped by an enormous concerted effort of local communities and national and international organizations. It is not clear, however, how much the public health response and behavioural changes in affected communities, respectively, contributed to ending the outbreak. Here, we analyse the epidemic in Lofa County, Liberia, lasting from March to November 2014, by reporting a comprehensive time line of events and estimating the time-varying transmission intensity using a mathematical model of Ebola transmission. Model fits to the epidemic show an alternation of peaks and troughs in transmission, consistent with highly heterogeneous spread. This is combined with an overall decline in the reproduction number of Ebola transmission from early August, coinciding with an expansion of the local Ebola treatment centre. We estimate that healthcare seeking approximately doubled over the course of the outbreak, and that isolation of those seeking healthcare reduced their reproduction number by 62% (mean estimate, 95% credible interval (CI) 59-66). Both expansion of bed availability and improved healthcare seeking contributed to ending the epidemic, highlighting the importance of community engagement alongside clinical intervention.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherRoyal Society Publishingen
dc.rightsArchived with thanks to Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciencesen
dc.titleThe Impact of Control Strategies and Behavioural Changes on the Elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberiaen
dc.identifier.journalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciencesen

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