• Falciparum Malaria and Climate Change in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan.

      Bouma, M J; Dye, C; van der Kaay, H J; Medecins Sans Frontieres-Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. (Published by: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 1996-08)
      Following a striking increase in the severity of autumnal outbreaks of Plasmodium falciparum during the last decade in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, the role of climatologic variables was investigated. A multivariate analysis showed that during the transmission season of P. falciparum, the amount of rainfall in September and October, the temperature in November and December, and the humidity in December were all correlated (r2 = 0.82) with two measures of P. falciparum, the falciparum rate (percent of slides examined positive for P. falciparum) since 1981 and the annual P. falciparum proportion (percent of all malaria infections diagnosed as P. falciparum) since 1978. Climatologic records since 1876 show an increase in mean November and December temperatures by 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C, respectively, and in October rainfall. Mean humidity in December has also been increasing since 1950. These climatologic changes in the area appear to have made conditions for transmission of P. falciparum more favorable, and may account for the increase in incidence observed in the NWFP in recent years.
    • Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997-2003.

      Gomez-Elipe, A; Otero, A; Van Herp, M; Aguirre-Jaime, A; Public Health Department, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Arzobispo Morcillo 2, 28029 Madrid, Spain. agomez.elipe@gmail.com (BMC, 2007)
      BACKGROUND: The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. METHODS: The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. RESULTS: The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range +/- 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. CONCLUSION: This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area.
    • Malaria surveillance among the displaced Karen population in Thailand April 1984 to February 1989, Mae Sot, Thailand.

      Decludt, B; Pecoul, B; Biberson, P; Lang, R; Imivithaya, S; Medecins sans Frontieres, Paris, France. (1991-12)
      Right from the arrival of the displaced Karen people in Thailand, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) identified malaria as the top priority problem. A program of patient care based on the coupled laboratory/dispensary was set up in April 1984. Immediately a system of surveillance of morbidity and mortality from malaria was set up. This study consisted of analysing data gathered over a period of five years. During this time, the displaced population increased from 9,000 to 20,000. Analysis of the trends shows a hyperendemic situation with an annual incidence rate of 1,067 per thousand in 1984. This figure was 600 per thousand in 1988. 1,500 blood smears were checked each month and the positive predictive value of clinical suspicion was 45% on average. Plasmodium falciparum represented 80% of infections. The malaria case fatality ratio over the course of the last two years of surveillance was 0.3%. Five years observation show that the fight against malaria in this region can be based on the development of curative services and laboratories.