Descriptive spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic 2008-2009 in Harare, Zimbabwe: a secondary data analysis.

Abstract

This ecological study describes the cholera epidemic in Harare during 2008-2009 and identifies patterns that may explain transmission. Rates ratios of cholera cases by suburb were calculated by a univariate regression Poisson model and then, through an Empirical Bayes modelling, smoothed rate ratios were estimated and represented geographically. Mbare and southwest suburbs of Harare presented higher rate ratios. Suburbs attack rates ranged from 1.2 (95% Cl = 0.7-1.6) cases per 1000 people in Tynwald to 90.3 (95% Cl = 82.8-98.2) in Hopley. The identification of this spatial pattern in the spread, characterised by low risk in low density residential housing, and a higher risk in high density south west suburbs and Mbare, could be used to advocate for improving water and sanitation conditions and specific preparedness measures in the most affected areas.