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    Apr 19, 2021
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    Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.

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    Authors
    Grais, RF
    Ferrari, M J
    Dubray, C
    Bjørnstad, O N
    Grenfell, B T
    Djibo, A
    Fermon, F
    Guerin, P J
    Affiliation
    Epicentre, 8 rue Saint Sabin, 75011 Paris, France. rebecca.grais@epicentre.msf.org
    Issue Date
    2006-09
    
    Metadata
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    Journal
    Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
    Abstract
    The objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact.
    Publisher
    Elsevier
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10144/17268
    DOI
    10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.10.014
    PubMed ID
    16540134
    Additional Links
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00359203
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    0035-9203
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.10.014
    Scopus Count
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    Vaccination

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