Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.
AffiliationEpicentre, 8 rue Saint Sabin, 75011 Paris, France. email@example.com
MetadataShow full item record
AbstractThe objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact.
- Late vaccination reinforcement during a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger (2003-2004).
- Authors: Dubray C, Gervelmeyer A, Djibo A, Jeanne I, Fermon F, Soulier MH, Grais RF, Guerin PJ
- Issue date: 2006 May 1
- The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Authors: Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Bharti N, Conlan AJ, Bjørnstad ON, Wolfson LJ, Guerin PJ, Djibo A, Grenfell BT
- Issue date: 2008 Feb 7
- Exploring the time to intervene with a reactive mass vaccination campaign in measles epidemics.
- Authors: Grais RF, DE Radiguès X, Dubray C, Fermon F, Guerin PJ
- Issue date: 2006 Aug
- Measles epidemic in the urban community of Niamey: transmission patterns, vaccine efficacy and immunization strategies, Niger, 1990 to 1991.
- Authors: Malfait P, Jataou IM, Jollet MC, Margot A, De Benoist AC, Moren A
- Issue date: 1994 Jan
- Failure of targeted urban supplemental measles vaccination campaigns (1997-1999) to prevent measles epidemics in Mozambique (1998-2001).
- Authors: Cliff J, Simango A, Augusto O, Van Der Paal L, Biellik R
- Issue date: 2003 May 15