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    Jan 15, 2021
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    Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness.

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    Authors
    Checchi, F
    Filipe, J A N
    Haydon, D T
    Chandramohan, D
    Chappuis, F
    Affiliation
    Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E7HT, UK. francesco.checchi@lshtm.ac.uk
    Issue Date
    2008-02-08
    
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    Journal
    BMC Infectious Diseases
    Abstract
    BACKGROUND: The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters. METHODS: We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites. RESULTS: Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment. CONCLUSION: Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.
    Publisher
    BioMed Central
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10144/29898
    DOI
    10.1186/1471-2334-8-16
    PubMed ID
    18261232
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    1471-2334
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1186/1471-2334-8-16
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Trypanosomiasis/Sleeping Sickness

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