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    Apr 23, 2021
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    Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery

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    Authors
    Bharti, N.
    Tatem, A. J.
    Ferrari, M. J.
    Grais, RF. F.
    Djibo, A.
    Grenfell, B. T.
    Affiliation
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
    Issue Date
    2011-12-09
    Submitted date
    2013-06-25
    
    Metadata
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    Journal
    Science
    Abstract
    Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.
    Publisher
    High Wire Press
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10144/302767
    DOI
    10.1126/science.1210554
    Additional Links
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1210554
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    0036-8075
    1095-9203
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1126/science.1210554
    Scopus Count
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