Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery
Affiliation
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USAIssue Date
2011-12-09Submitted date
2013-06-25
Metadata
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ScienceAbstract
Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.Publisher
High Wire PressAdditional Links
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1210554Language
enISSN
0036-80751095-9203
ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1126/science.1210554