Authors
Ferrari, M JGrais, RF
Bharti, N
Conlan, A J K
Bjørnstad, O N
Wolfson, L J
Guerin, P J
Djibo, A
Grenfell, B T
Affiliation
Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA. mferrari@psu.eduIssue Date
2008-02-07
Metadata
Show full item recordJournal
NatureAbstract
Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur.Publisher
MacmillanPubMed ID
18256664Language
enISSN
1476-4687ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1038/nature06509
Scopus Count
Related articles
- Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.
- Authors: Grais RF, Ferrari MJ, Dubray C, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Djibo A, Fermon F, Guerin PJ
- Issue date: 2006 Sep
- Late vaccination reinforcement during a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger (2003-2004).
- Authors: Dubray C, Gervelmeyer A, Djibo A, Jeanne I, Fermon F, Soulier MH, Grais RF, Guerin PJ
- Issue date: 2006 May 1
- Exploring the time to intervene with a reactive mass vaccination campaign in measles epidemics.
- Authors: Grais RF, DE Radiguès X, Dubray C, Fermon F, Guerin PJ
- Issue date: 2006 Aug
- A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and measles dynamics during the vaccination period in England and Wales.
- Authors: Lima M
- Issue date: 2009 Apr
- Scheduling of measles vaccination in low-income countries: projections of a dynamic model.
- Authors: Bauch CT, Szusz E, Garrison LP
- Issue date: 2009 Jun 24