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    Mar 04, 2021
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    Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

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    Metras et al - 2017 - Drivers ...
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    Authors
    Métras, R
    Fournié, G
    Dommergues, L
    Camacho, A
    Cavalerie, L
    Mérot, P
    Keeling, MJ
    Cêtre-Sossah, C
    Cardinale, E
    Edmunds, WJ
    Issue Date
    2017-07-21
    Submitted date
    2018-02-01
    
    Metadata
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    Journal
    PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
    Abstract
    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006-2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data.
    Publisher
    Public Library of Science
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10144/619066
    DOI
    10.1371/journal.pntd.0005767
    PubMed ID
    28732006
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    1935-2735
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1371/journal.pntd.0005767
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Other Diseases

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