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dc.contributor.authorBlake, A
dc.contributor.authorDjibo, A
dc.contributor.authorGuindo, O
dc.contributor.authorGharti, N
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-19T17:16:48Z
dc.date.available2020-11-19T17:16:48Z
dc.date.issued2020-08-26
dc.date.submitted2020-11-04
dc.identifier.pmid32842891
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2020.0480
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10144/619761
dc.description.abstractMeasles is a major cause of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Current immunization strategies achieve low coverage in areas where transmission drivers differ substantially from those in high-income countries. A better understanding of measles transmission in areas with measles persistence will increase vaccination coverage and reduce ongoing transmission. We analysed weekly reported measles cases at the district level in Niger from 1995 to 2004 to identify underlying transmission mechanisms. We identified dominant periodicities and the associated spatial clustering patterns. We also investigated associations between reported measles cases and environmental drivers associated with human activities, particularly rainfall. The annual and 2-3-year periodicities dominated the reporting data spectrum. The annual periodicity was strong with contiguous spatial clustering, consistent with the latitudinal gradient of population density, and stable over time. The 2-3-year periodicities were weaker, unstable over time and had spatially fragmented clustering. The rainy season was associated with a lower risk of measles case reporting. The annual periodicity likely reflects seasonal agricultural labour migration, whereas the 2-3-year periodicity potentially results from multiple mechanisms such as reintroductions and vaccine coverage heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that improving vaccine coverage in seasonally mobile populations could reduce strong measles seasonality in Niger and across similar settings.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherThe Royal Societyen_US
dc.rightsWith thanks to the Royal Society.en_US
dc.subjectmeasles
dc.subjectmetapopulation
dc.subjectseasonal migration
dc.subjectsub-Saharan Africa
dc.subjectvaccination
dc.titleInvestigating persistent measles dynamics in Niger and associations with rainfall.en_US
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.eissn1742-5662
dc.identifier.journalJournal of the Royal Society, Interfaceen_US
dc.source.journaltitleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface
dc.source.volume17
dc.source.issue169
dc.source.beginpage20200480
dc.source.endpage
refterms.dateFOA2020-11-19T17:16:49Z
dc.source.countryEngland


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