Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example.
AffiliationCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University, PA 16802, USA. email@example.com
MetadataShow full item record
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
AbstractUnderstanding age-specific differences in infection rates can be important in predicting the magnitude of and mortality in outbreaks and targeting age groups for vaccination programmes. Standard methods to estimate age-specific rates assume that the age-specific force of infection is constant in time. However, this assumption may easily be violated in the face of a highly variable outbreak history, as recently observed for acute immunizing infections like measles, in strongly seasonal settings. Here we investigate the biases that result from ignoring such fluctuations in incidence and present a correction based on the epidemic history. We apply the method to data from a measles outbreak in Niamey, Niger and show that, despite a bimodal age distribution of cases, the estimated age-specific force of infection is unimodal and concentrated in young children (<5 years) consistent with previous analyses of age-specific rates in the region.
PublisherCambridge University Press
- Measles epidemic in the urban community of Niamey: transmission patterns, vaccine efficacy and immunization strategies, Niger, 1990 to 1991.
- Authors: Malfait P, Jataou IM, Jollet MC, Margot A, De Benoist AC, Moren A
- Issue date: 1994 Jan
- Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention.
- Authors: Grais RF, Ferrari MJ, Dubray C, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Djibo A, Fermon F, Guerin PJ
- Issue date: 2006 Sep
- Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger.
- Authors: Grais RF, Conlan AJ, Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Le Menach A, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT
- Issue date: 2008 Jan 6
- Impact of measles outbreak response vaccination campaign in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
- Authors: Goodson JL, Wiesen E, Perry RT, Mach O, Kitambi M, Kibona M, Luman ET, Cairns KL
- Issue date: 2009 Sep 25
- Measles vaccine effectiveness in standard and early immunization strategies, Niger, 1995.
- Authors: Kaninda AV, Legros D, Jataou IM, Malfait P, Maisonneuve M, Paquet C, Moren A
- Issue date: 1998 Nov